By Callum Christie, Foreign Policy Specialist
South Korea is part of a geopolitically tense region, The long-standing alliance with America has helped South Korea become democratic, the 13th largest economy and stand against Pyongyang. However, South Korea has issues with all 3 nations within its tri-lateral defence agreements.
Credit: Sergei Mazhuga
The recent alignment with Japan is controversial due to their colonization of Korea and its unrepentant attitude towards it. Recently, the Japanese and South Korean trade war over the South Korean Supreme Court decision to allow plaintiffs to claim compensation from Japanese firms for WWII forced labour. Despite Japan-South Korea’s cultural, political, and economic similarities, the violent history clouds any strong alliance.
However, the major problems come from Washington. If Trump gets re-elected, there will be serious questions over his administration’s commitment to Seoul’s defence. Trump notoriously came close to unilaterally withdrawing from the US-South Korea free trade agreement while his withdrawal from TPP undermined the US’ economic position in East Asia.
However, the major problems come from Washington. If Trump gets re-elected, there will be serious questions over his administration’s commitment to Seoul’s defence. Trump notoriously came close to unilaterally withdrawing from the US-South Korea free trade agreement while his withdrawal from TPP undermined the US’ economic position in East Asia.
Credit: Laura Seaman
Trump has also been far more interested in talking to Pyongyang than Seoul, with Trump considering withdrawing from the peninsula if North Korea abandoned its nuclear programme. Trump’s unilateral decision to withdraw from US-South Korean joint military exercises, a visible display of Washington’s commitment to Seoul’s defence; a decision that shocked the South Korean Right-wing and military, the most pro-American South Koreans. There are ongoing disagreements over South Korean payment for American military presence.
Trump’s trade war with China also makes any peaceful, diplomatic progress with Pyongyang difficult, the central issue of South Korean foreign policy. Due to all this, there is an internal divide within South Korea over how to handle Pyongyang’s aggression.
Journalist Barbara Demick noted on The Ezra Klein Show podcast: ‘If you go to an anti-North Korea march in Seoul, there will be 50 or so old men who are Korean War veterans. But if you go to an anti-US demonstration you see 1000s of young people in candle-lit marches. There is a view among Koreans that America is the problem.’
Trump’s trade war with China also makes any peaceful, diplomatic progress with Pyongyang difficult, the central issue of South Korean foreign policy. Due to all this, there is an internal divide within South Korea over how to handle Pyongyang’s aggression.
Journalist Barbara Demick noted on The Ezra Klein Show podcast: ‘If you go to an anti-North Korea march in Seoul, there will be 50 or so old men who are Korean War veterans. But if you go to an anti-US demonstration you see 1000s of young people in candle-lit marches. There is a view among Koreans that America is the problem.’
Partly due to this, Seoul is seeking to strike a balance between Beijing and Washington.
Fully committing to Beijing has its attractions. In leadership, China and Xi specifically offer a calmer, less volatile alliance than the American political system currently does. If Trump’s isolationism becomes a part of the Republican platform in the longer term, China begins to look more technocratic and a safer option.
China also boasts a strong and growing economic market for trade, currently shown in tourism, and possibly a great source of innovation with Huawei’s 5G especially as China moves to a more consumption, less export-based economy. Optimistically, this could lead to a more peaceful peninsula and East Asia.
However, Seoul is unlikely to follow this path. South Korea would have to defer militarily to China; its installation and maintenance of the THAAD missile defence system, which incurred strong domestic opposition and Chinese economic sanctions, shows Seoul will not give up its security interests lightly. Beijing sees these systems and alliances as America’s containment strategy, removing THAAD would be a firm pre-condition of any South Korea-China alliance.
Fully committing to Beijing has its attractions. In leadership, China and Xi specifically offer a calmer, less volatile alliance than the American political system currently does. If Trump’s isolationism becomes a part of the Republican platform in the longer term, China begins to look more technocratic and a safer option.
China also boasts a strong and growing economic market for trade, currently shown in tourism, and possibly a great source of innovation with Huawei’s 5G especially as China moves to a more consumption, less export-based economy. Optimistically, this could lead to a more peaceful peninsula and East Asia.
However, Seoul is unlikely to follow this path. South Korea would have to defer militarily to China; its installation and maintenance of the THAAD missile defence system, which incurred strong domestic opposition and Chinese economic sanctions, shows Seoul will not give up its security interests lightly. Beijing sees these systems and alliances as America’s containment strategy, removing THAAD would be a firm pre-condition of any South Korea-China alliance.
Credit: Office of the President
President Moon Jae-in (pictured right), recognising his country’s difficult position, stated in 2017: “That is why I am pursuing a balanced diplomacy with the United States as well as China.”
Moon recognises the need for both. It is impossible to be neutral in a region with so many global powers and players while also being geographically, economically, and geopolitically in-between the 2 superpowers.
Seoul will likely continue to pursue this balanced approach, while praying for a Biden victory. If Trump wins, East Asia will be on notice for major geopolitical power shifts.
Moon recognises the need for both. It is impossible to be neutral in a region with so many global powers and players while also being geographically, economically, and geopolitically in-between the 2 superpowers.
Seoul will likely continue to pursue this balanced approach, while praying for a Biden victory. If Trump wins, East Asia will be on notice for major geopolitical power shifts.
RSS Feed
