By Callum Christie
Credit: Jorgen Haland
As peaceful protests continue in Belarus, the West is considering its response. Russia has already put its cards down: restricting debt while offering a reserve of national guard troops to help if Moscow warrants it.
This second part is important; Putin is unlikely to put himself in political-harm’s way to save a man he has never been particularly fond of.
Much literature has been written on Putin’s foreign policy and what his overall aims are. One has become abundantly clear: it must be a win, thereby strengthening Putin’s political standing at home.
Despite the fact he is a dictator, a social contract remains between the Kremlin and the Russian people, keeping Lukashenko in power is hardly a win, certainly not if it costs money and soldiers. Although, this dynamic completely changes if the West gets heavily involved. Then it becomes an opportunity to show its strength in the region it calls its neat abroad, its very own sphere of influence.
If you want to understand a protest, look at the flags being waved. The Belarus opposition has opted for the red and white Belarusian flag as it has long been the symbol of opposition to Lukashenko.
The flags not involved. The EU flag or any others associated with the West. Without Western involvement, Russia has little reason to try and crush a revolution. Russia already has expensive frozen conflicts in the Donbass, remains stuck in Syria at a time when finances are being drained by COVID-19. Add on the cost of corruption which, following deeply unpopular pension reforms, lead to protests. Additionally, with large-scale protests entering their fourth week, why would Putin risk Russian troops in a major debacle abroad? Troops can only hold back protestors for so long.
Of course, everyone points to Ukraine and Crimea. Belarus is not Ukraine. Politically, economically, geographically, and culturally the 2 are quite different in the Russian psyche: Ukraine was the breadbasket of Russia while Crimea was the cradle of Russian civilisation. Contrast this with Belarus, only not a part of Russia after World War I and then at the centre of Eastern theatre of World War II, a land which was bulldozed by the Nazis and then violently retaken by the Red Army with much suffering and lives lost throughout. Belarus was rebuilt in the Soviet image but being landlocked its economy was not comparable with Ukraine.
The protest committee has rejected EU help, a wise move which shows these leaders are not amateurs but know their environment. There is also the practical point that Belarus is economically far away from even being considered for candidate status to join the EU.
If this revolution is to succeed, it must be bland, not colourful. Putin viewed Western support of the colour revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia as a deep encouragement on Russia sovereignty, despite these actions being by sovereign nations. However, that is a whole other debate. This revolution should be allowed to grow organically.
The reports of protestors being shot, beaten and raped are horrible and disgusting, the SMOH and Belarussian KGB are disgusting, inhuman barbarians but, as hard and immoral as it feels, the West should not give these monsters an excuse to continue their bestial ways.
If the West stays out of Belarus, a corrupt dictator, supposedly Europe’s last if you ignore Orbán and Putin, could fall. As protests continue, the security apparatus become less and less willing and able to defend a regime they know to be unpopular. The protest committee are hardly radicals; hopefully, a peaceful transition of power can be found.
This second part is important; Putin is unlikely to put himself in political-harm’s way to save a man he has never been particularly fond of.
Much literature has been written on Putin’s foreign policy and what his overall aims are. One has become abundantly clear: it must be a win, thereby strengthening Putin’s political standing at home.
Despite the fact he is a dictator, a social contract remains between the Kremlin and the Russian people, keeping Lukashenko in power is hardly a win, certainly not if it costs money and soldiers. Although, this dynamic completely changes if the West gets heavily involved. Then it becomes an opportunity to show its strength in the region it calls its neat abroad, its very own sphere of influence.
If you want to understand a protest, look at the flags being waved. The Belarus opposition has opted for the red and white Belarusian flag as it has long been the symbol of opposition to Lukashenko.
The flags not involved. The EU flag or any others associated with the West. Without Western involvement, Russia has little reason to try and crush a revolution. Russia already has expensive frozen conflicts in the Donbass, remains stuck in Syria at a time when finances are being drained by COVID-19. Add on the cost of corruption which, following deeply unpopular pension reforms, lead to protests. Additionally, with large-scale protests entering their fourth week, why would Putin risk Russian troops in a major debacle abroad? Troops can only hold back protestors for so long.
Of course, everyone points to Ukraine and Crimea. Belarus is not Ukraine. Politically, economically, geographically, and culturally the 2 are quite different in the Russian psyche: Ukraine was the breadbasket of Russia while Crimea was the cradle of Russian civilisation. Contrast this with Belarus, only not a part of Russia after World War I and then at the centre of Eastern theatre of World War II, a land which was bulldozed by the Nazis and then violently retaken by the Red Army with much suffering and lives lost throughout. Belarus was rebuilt in the Soviet image but being landlocked its economy was not comparable with Ukraine.
The protest committee has rejected EU help, a wise move which shows these leaders are not amateurs but know their environment. There is also the practical point that Belarus is economically far away from even being considered for candidate status to join the EU.
If this revolution is to succeed, it must be bland, not colourful. Putin viewed Western support of the colour revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia as a deep encouragement on Russia sovereignty, despite these actions being by sovereign nations. However, that is a whole other debate. This revolution should be allowed to grow organically.
The reports of protestors being shot, beaten and raped are horrible and disgusting, the SMOH and Belarussian KGB are disgusting, inhuman barbarians but, as hard and immoral as it feels, the West should not give these monsters an excuse to continue their bestial ways.
If the West stays out of Belarus, a corrupt dictator, supposedly Europe’s last if you ignore Orbán and Putin, could fall. As protests continue, the security apparatus become less and less willing and able to defend a regime they know to be unpopular. The protest committee are hardly radicals; hopefully, a peaceful transition of power can be found.
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